A Quiet Contrast to Last Year’s Turbulent Start
Texas enjoys calm start to the 2025 hurricane season, a sharp contrast to last year when the tropics stirred trouble early. In 2024, storms Alberto and Beryl struck before mid-summer, setting a turbulent tone. This year, however, no storms have made direct landfall in the state.
Across the Atlantic, six named storms have already formed, but none have reached U.S. shores. North Carolina’s Outer Banks felt the brunt of Erin, but Texas has remained untouched. The Lone Star State had already endured two storms by early July last year, marking a sharp difference from this season.
A System Worth Watching Over Labor Day Weekend
As Labor Day approaches, forecasters are closely monitoring one system on the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) tropical outlook map. If it develops, it will be named Gabrielle. The tropical wave will emerge from the west coast of Africa by Sunday, August 31.
While environmental conditions may allow for slow development, the chances remain low, with a near 0% probability within 48 hours and approximately 30% over seven days. The disturbance is moving west to west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. Though it poses no immediate threat, the NHC is tracking it as the system most likely to evolve in the coming days.
Other Tropical Waves in the Atlantic
Alongside the potential Gabrielle system, the NHC is monitoring several additional tropical waves:
- Wave 1: Located along 22W in the far eastern Atlantic, moving west at 6 mph. It faces heavy Saharan dust that suppresses storm development.
- Wave 2: Moving along 52W in the central Atlantic at 17 mph.
- Wave 3: Tracking west along 72W in the central Caribbean at 17 mph.
- Wave 4: A former Caribbean system that has now moved into the eastern Pacific.
Although these waves currently pose a limited threat, the season’s peak is only beginning, making conditions ripe for future development.
Historical Patterns Around Labor Day
According to AccuWeather, Labor Day weekend often coincides with at least one tropical storm or hurricane forming in the Atlantic Basin. However, experts predict this year could be another exception.
Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, noted that dry air and strong upper-level winds may provide “the rare gift of a tropical cyclone-free Labor Day weekend.” If no named storm forms, it would mark the second consecutive year without one on the holiday weekend — something not seen since 1991 and 1992.
Still, meteorologists urge caution. September remains the busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, typically producing three to six named storms, two to four hurricanes, and one or two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Texas Compared to Last Year’s Hurricane Season
For Texans, this calm period stands in stark contrast to 2024. Last year, the state faced Tropical Storm Alberto in late June, followed by Hurricane Beryl in early July. Beryl was the earliest recorded Category 5 storm, devastating parts of Texas when it made landfall near Matagorda.
After that, the rest of the 2024 season quieted, leaving residents relieved but wary. This year, no storms have directly affected Texas yet. Still, with August and September ahead, forecasters caution that the season is far from over.
When Is Hurricane Season?
Texas enjoys calm start to the 2025 hurricane season, which officially spans June 1 to November 30. According to NOAA, 97% of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this period, with August and September marking the peak months. The basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and what NOAA now calls the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico. An executive order implemented this renaming, and official advisories have reflected the change ever since.
Preparing Before It’s Too Late
Even in quiet years, preparation is key. NOAA recommends residents act early rather than waiting for warnings:
- Develop an evacuation plan: Know where you’ll go and how you’ll get there if a storm threatens.
- Assemble disaster supplies: Stock food, water, medications, and essentials for both the storm and its aftermath.
- Get an insurance checkup: Ensure your coverage is sufficient. Remember, standard home and renters policies don’t cover flooding. Flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
- Create a family communication plan: Establish meeting points and contacts in case of evacuation.
- Strengthen your home: Trim trees, install storm shutters, and secure openings.
Forecasters warn that even though Texas has had a peaceful start, the peak of hurricane season is here. Waiting to prepare could mean facing the storm unready.